2009 Preseason NFL Predictions

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With football coming on quickly, this is good time to predict what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future odds are out for each team. In 2008 I focused on Pittsburgh, who were projected for 9 wins, and wrote:  The Steelers had 10 wins in 2007 with the top ranked defense. The offense was already good (ranking third in rushing and 17th in total), with strong balance, and they bring in Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall and Texas WR Limas Sweed. Mendenhall was a great pick and gives Pittsburgh a brute force back to go along with fast RB Willie Parker.

The Steelers possess a terrific QB in Ben Roethlisberger, plus WRs Hines Ward and former Ohio State speedster Santonio Holmes. The Steelers were supreme at home winning seven of nine, permitting 13.8 ppg and once again they look like the best of the best in their division. Over nine victories.  The result: This team went 12-4 on the way to winning their second Super Bowl in four years.

For 2009 the Patriots are predicted to have 12 wins, while the New York Giants and San Diego Chargers are at 10 . Various elements come into play when assessing futures, in addition to offseason changes. Keeping that in mind, let s take a evaluate changes that took place with certain teams and how that might effect their status for the current over/unders.

Panthers (8.5): Everyone remembers the worthless playoff loss, when Jake Delhomme threw 5 picks in a 33-13 home loss to the Cardinals. What people forget is that Carolina was a dominant team, 12-4 in the regular season, gaining the second highest seed for the playoffs. They have balance on the offensive side of the ball, with a solid offensive line and a power running back punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jon Stewart.

Plus, the Panthers gave Jake Delhomme a five year contract worth more than $30 million to take his mind off any financial issues. When Delhomme is required to attempt more than 30 passes, the team is 7-22, so Jon Fox loves offensive balance. The defense is in good shape after bringing back Julius Peppers. Carolina also brought back cornerback Chris Gamble and offensive tackle Jordan Gross to multimillion-dollar deals before they would have become sought-after free agents. Those moves are often passed over when evaluating a team s offseason activity. Carolina looks very good again; take Over 8.5 wins.

Bears (over/under 8 wins): All the buzz has been on new QB Jay Cutler, a Pro Bowler who is just what the Bears need. While QB is the most important position, he can t do it all by himself. And I see weakness all over the field for Chicago (and on the coaching sideline).

The Bears were near the bottom in rushing last year, with no rushing attack and a weak offensive line. And who will Cutler be able to throw to? Chicago is banking on significant production from multiple unproven guys at receiver in 2009. Earl Bennett is slotted to start with 0 NFL grabs, first-year guys Juaquin Iglesias and Johnny Knox are being relied upon, leaving starter Devin Hester and veteran slot receiver Rashied Davis as the only certain wide outs. And Brandon Rideau could project in the mix, but he has nearly no NFL experience.

On defense, the Bears were 21st overall and 30th in pass defense in 2008, giving up an astounding 241 yards passing per game. DT Tommie Harris left knee makes you wonder what the Bears were doing when they signed him to an extension last summer. Lovie Smith and the general manager have done a poor job on roster decisions, Chicago didn t have a draft pick until the third round and don t have a first-round pick in the 2010 draft. The Cutler histeria could fade fast after a few 30-23 defeats. Under 8 wins.

New England Patriots (over/under 12 wins): So which Patriots are it going to be this year? The steamroller of 2007, or the injury-plagued team of 2008? Even without Tom Brady, they won 11 games last season, meaning they have averaged 13.5 wins the last two years in the regular season. The offense is loaded and all indications are that Brady is back at full strength.

The defense has quite a bit of depth in the secondary, using three second and third round draft choices, including second rounders safety Patrick Chung (Oregon) and CB Darius Butler (UConn). The Patriots were the 2nd highest scoring offense in the AFC in 2008, even minus the 2007 MVP and his record 50 TDs. Have to consider the division is going to take a step back, as the Dolphins won t surprise anyone and everything went their way, plus the Jets have a new coach and a first-year quarterback. The schedule isn t that bad, with the only tough away games at the Colts and New Orleans in November. Over 12 wins is more likely.

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August 28, 2009

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