Gonzaga St. Mary’s Free NCAA Basketball Pick for February 12, 2009

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Thursday’s Free Pick:

CBB

1 Unit on Gonzaga -4

St. Mary’s can’t bear the Zags without Patrick Mills. Gonzaga won the first meeting at home by 7 and I expect this one to be even worse with the Bulldogs coming off an eye-opening 18-point loss to Memphis. St. Mary’s is also coming off an 18-point defeat but history is not on the side of the Gaels bouncing back. St. Mary’s is 6-18 ATS in home games after a loss by 15 points or more since 1997 and 4-14 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1997. The Gaels are losing by an about 9 ppg in each of these situations. Gonzaga has won 25 of the last 29 in this matchup and I’ll take the Zags in a bounce back spot here.

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February 12, 2009

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