Hawks Bucks Free NBA Pick for March 22, 2010

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Monday’s Big Plays:

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Monday’s Free Pick:

NBA

1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks +6

Bottom Line: I know Milwaukee is playing some good basketball, and I know the Hawks just played a tough overtime game last night, but the Bucks are being overvalued here.  I’ll gladly take the points when you consider that the Hawks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.  Plus, plays against home favorites (MILWAUKEE) in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=82 shots/game), a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO’s) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO’s) are 52-37 ATS this season.  The last 5 seasons, the favorite has been favored by 7.2 points on average in these spots, but is only winning by 4.7 points on average.  We’ll take the points in what should be a close game.

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March 22, 2010

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