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NFL Handicapping: Defense Comes Before Offense

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This article was written by Jim Feist. If you want to win more with your NFL betting this year, take a look at what he has to offer this weekend.

So what do you prefer: offense or defense? Most everyday bettors studying NFL picks like offense, which is why Monday night football games often take more bets on the over. There have been some terrific offensive football teams that last few years, such as USC and Texas in 2005, LSU and Florida the last two years, and pro passing attacks like the Rams, Colts, Dick Vermeil’s Chiefs, the 2007 Patriots and this year’s Saints.

However, list the last few Super Bowl winners? The Steelers, Giants, Colts, Pats and Bucs. Last season the Arizona Cardinals had the colorful offense and were the big surprise, but the top defensive team in the league, Pittsburgh, cleared them in the big game. In 2007 defense shut down offense as the Giants topped the high-flying Patriots.

In 2006 Indy was unusual, in that their run defense was poor during the regular season, then caught fire in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Bears were No. 1 in total defense. Back in 2005, the Steelers and Seahawks met in the Super Bowl. They were two of the top run defenses in the league and Pittsburgh was No. 4 in total defense. The Patriots won three Super Bowls with a better defense than offense. Their 2002 team didn’t make the playoffs and the reason was obvious, the second worst run defense, a flaw they fixed and the effect was back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

That 2002 season the Super Bowl was a fascinating match-up that pitted the No. 1 offense, Oakland, against the No. 1 defense in Tampa Bay. The Raiders averaged 28.1 points per game, while the Bucs ranked 18th in scoring with 21.6 ppg. This is partially why the Raiders were a 4-point favorite on Super Sunday, but what was the outcome? Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21.

Defense still rules and is an large factor when evaluating NFL picks. Defense, in all sports, doesn’t get the promotion that a loud, energizing offense does, but there is so much truth in that age-old proverb “Defense wins championships.” Pittsburgh won four Super Bowl titles in six years from 1975-80 with Hall-of-Famers Terry Bradshaw, Lynn Swann and Franco Harris on offense. But the foundation of that run was a defense for the ages led by L.C. Greenwood, Joe Greene, Mel Blount, and Jack Ham.

Note that four of the last seven Super Bowl winners had major inadequacies on offense, yet won with strong all-around defenses. The 2005 Steelers were 23rd in passing. Many laughed at the Baltimore Ravens in 2000 when they went five straight games without an offensive touchdown, but the Ravens laughed all the way to the Super Bowl, going 14-5-1 at the pay window dominating with a fierce defense. Here are the defensive rankings of the last 12 Super Bowl champions and their spread marks:

Super Bowl Champs – ATS Record – Defensive Rank

1996 Packers: 12-6-1 ATS – No. 1 (4th rushing, 1st passing)

1997 Broncos: 13-7 ATS – No. 5 (16th rushing, 5th passing)

1998 Broncos: – 12-7 ATS – No. 11 (3rd rushing, 25th passing)

1999 Rams: 14-4-1 ATS – No. 6 (1st rushing, 23rd passing)

2000 Ravens: 14-5-1 ATS – No. 2 (1st rushing, 9th passing)

2001 Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS – No. 24 (18th rushing, 24th passing)

2002 Bucs: 12-6 ATS – No. 1 (6th rushing, 1st passing)

2003 Patriots: 14-4-1 ATS – No. 7 (3rd rushing, 18th passing)

2004 Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS – No. 9 (6th rushing, 17th passing)

2005 Steelers: 13-7 ATS – No. 4 (3rd rushing, 16th passing)

2006 Colts: 12-8 ATS- No. 15 (32nd rushing, 3rd passing)

2007 Giants: 14-6 ATS – No. 7 (8th rushing, 11th passing)

2008 Steelers: 11-8 ATS – No. 1 (2nd rushing, 1st passing)

All the champs were statistically very strong defensively, with the exception of the 2001 Patriots and the 2006 Colts. Both those teams got better defensively in the later levels of the season and were starring in the playoffs. In 2001, New England sputtered early with injuries and new personnel, but in the second half the ‘D’ held their final nine adversaries to 17 points or less. Counterpoint those numbers with the offensive rankings of the last seven Super Bowl champs: The Ravens were 16th offensively, the Patriots 19th, Tampa Bay was 22nd, the 03′ Pats were 17th, the ‘04 Pats 7th, the Steelers 15th, the Colts third and the Giants 16th.

The 1999 Rams had a destructive offense (No. 1), but it was easy to overlook the fact that the Rams had the No. 6 overall defense (No. 1 against the run). The strong offense and defense helped the Rams go 16-3 SU and 14-4-1 ATS on the way to beating Tennessee, 23-16, in Super Bowl XXXIV.

The 2000 Rams’ offense was even better, No. 1 averaging 33.7 points per game. The defense lost head coach Dick Vermeil, defensive coordinator John Bunting, as well as an early-season injury to defensive leader D’Marco Farr. That was enough, as the unit entirely disintegrated, winding up 23rd overall, 27th against the pass while yielding the most points in the NFL (29.4 points per game).

Even though the offense was unstoppable, the defensive crash caused the Rams to limp into the playoffs as a Wild Card team, where they were promptly eliminated by the Saints, 31-28, as a 6-point chalk. The bad ‘D’ made them a bad bet, as well, going 6-10-1 against the spread. The Pats ended 2007 on a 1-8 ATS run, getting all that promotion on offense, while the Giants were 8-1 ATS, a extraordinary difference for NFL pick trends. Clearly, defense is still the key to football success.

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November 3, 2009

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