Week 9 NFL Picks

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Doc’s Sportstakes a look at two games for this weekend that wagerers might want to place a wager on.

The Miami Dolphins play at the New England Patriots on Sunday with the NFL lines listing the Pats by 11.

Sure, New England has looked like their old selves of late, cashing for backers and brutal to foes against whom they have no reservations about running up the score until coach Bill Belichick is fulfilled.

New England has won its last two games by a combined score of 94-7, profiting in each game. But keep in mind these runaways came against the woeful Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are among the NFL’s worst teams.

So far this year, when New England has faced opposition they have sputtered. You can anticipate some opposition against the Miami Dolphins, whose tricky offensive formations and mostly sound defense has kept them close in most games.

Miami ranks fourth in rushing offense at 154 yards per game, while coming in sixth against the run (92.4 ypg). The Dolphins also are a stunning 11th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per contest.

New England’s offensive stats were bloated by the two romps, but the Patriots also have softly managed to field the league’s third-best scoring defense (14 ppg). The unit will have its hands full against a clock-control offense designed to shorten the game. Because of fewer possessions, the Patriots will not be able to get ahead big, and the points provide a nice cushion here.

Trends: Miami is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more. Miami also is 5-0 ATS in their past five against AFC East teams, and 13-3 ATS against home teams with winning records. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their past five as a favorite, and 4-0 ATS against teams that are under .500. Each team won as a visitor last year.

Pick: Dolphins +11.

The 1-6 Tennessee Titans head to San Franciso to play the 49ers. San Fran is listed as a 4-point favorite. The Titans went from having the NFL’s best regular-season record last year to becoming one of this season’s bottom-feeders. The 49ers went from a bright start to another year that looks directed toward lamenting what could have been.

Neither result should come as much of a shocker. It’s not so much that Tennessee changed from a great team into an awful one, as much as it is that the lines have merely caught up with them. Coach Jeff Fisher’s conservative, run-oriented style lends itself to Tennessee consistently playing tight games. Last year, they happened to win most of them, and this year they are coming out on the short end. Fisher’s tight-gripped game plans are also stressed at the hands of opponents who run more sophisticated, higher-scoring offenses.

The 49ers aren’t one of them. Although the 49er defense is solid enough to keep the team in most games, its lack of offense has been a component in its three consecutive defeats. The 49ers are 27th in total offense with 275 yards per game.

San Francisco’s second-ranked run defense will be up against the Titans’ second-ranked rushing attack (162 ypg). The match-up favors Fisher’s style, and the four points should come in handy.

Trends: The Titans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points, and 4-1 ATS in their last five November games. The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, and 3-0-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.

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November 7, 2009

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